The Industrial Revolution was not merely an era of technological marvels; it was a seismic shift in how societies lived, worked, and envisioned the future. The hum of factories, the roar of locomotives, and the relentless advance of machinery defined a new age. Yet behind the wonder lay an unsettling truth: disruption. Generations of craftsmen saw their trades dissolve, while burgeoning industries demanded skills that had never existed before. History tells us that each wave of innovation brings both promise and upheaval.
Today, we find ourselves at the forefront of another transformative revolution. In their seminal paper Technological Disruption in the Labor Market , David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence H. Summers explore the profound implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on the modern workforce. Summers, a towering figure in economic thought and former Treasury Secretary under President Barack Obama, lends his expertise to an inquiry that spans over a century of labor market data. Together, the authors chart how periods of upheaval, from the rise of mechanization to today’s digital age, have reshaped the contours of work.
What they reveal is surprising. Despite our perception of living in an age of relentless technological acceleration, the pace of labor market disruption has slowed. Between 1990 and 2017, the rate of change in employment shares—what the authors term “churn”—was among the lowest since 1880. This stands in stark contrast to earlier eras of rapid upheaval, such as the advent of mass electrification or the mechanization of agriculture.
Churn, as the researchers define it, is a measure of how much the labor market shifts over time. It quantifies the rise and fall of job categories—the birth of new roles and the decline of old ones. Imagine a bustling city street in the 19th century, filled with blacksmiths forging horseshoes. As cars replaced horses, those blacksmiths faced a choice: adapt to the automotive age or risk obsolescence. Some found work in emerging industries—auto repair, assembly lines—while others were left behind. This constant flux is churn, and while it has been a feature of every industrial transformation, its pace has varied dramatically.
The periods of highest churn occurred between 1880 and 1900, when railroads and mechanized agriculture reshaped the American economy, and between 1940 and 1970, when electrification, automobiles, and suburbanization redefined modern life. These were times when entire industries rose and fell in the span of decades, displacing workers while creating entirely new kinds of jobs. Today, churn has slowed. AI is advancing, but its impact, for now, is more gradual—building over decades rather than detonating overnight.
Still, the signs of change are everywhere. Retail jobs are declining, STEM employment is surging, and low-paid service roles have stagnated. These shifts reveal an economy transitioning toward higher-skill, knowledge-driven work. AI emerges as both disruptor and creator, automating routine tasks while unlocking new opportunities in areas like healthcare and logistics.
As someone involved in building AI tools at Boox.Expert, I witness the effects of this transformation firsthand. Tasks that once demanded hours of human effort can now be completed in moments. The ability to parse complex documents, analyze data, and derive insights is becoming faster and more efficient. This shift raises questions about the future of work, particularly in fields where technology might soon outpace human capabilities.
Deming, Ong, and Summers caution that while AI holds immense potential, it must be managed wisely. Their research emphasizes the importance of education and retraining to ensure that workers can adapt to this new landscape. Historical examples, like the GI Bill after World War II, show how public investment can help individuals navigate profound economic shifts. A similar effort will be essential to ensure AI benefits all, not just a select few.
The story of churn is a reminder that while progress can be disruptive, it also creates opportunities. The Industrial Revolution transformed societies, but it also laid the groundwork for unprecedented prosperity. AI, much like the revolutions that came before it, offers both challenge and promise. Whether it becomes a force for shared progress or deepened divides will depend on the choices we make today. Deming, Ong, and Summers provide a roadmap for navigating this new era, illuminating a path toward a future where technology serves as a tool for empowerment rather than displacement.